Category Archive

Gareth Morgan, Director of Gareth Morgan Investments Friday’s move by the RB to haul back a little on the easing monetary conditions was overdue. While the threat of immediate inflation may well be minor, as various sector interests have been … Read More

Gareth Morgan, Director of Gareth Morgan Investments Once financial deregulation descended, NZ’s established capital market structures came under tremendous pressures. We have seen the sharemarket suffer an enormous reversal in value with low prospects of that particular market ever returning … Read More

Gareth Morgan, Director of Gareth Morgan Investments The failure of the GATT to produce significant cuts in agricultural protection is an opportunity for Ni’s agricultural industry. The news holds little cheer for our producers of agricultural commodities, but they’ve been … Read More

Gareth Morgan, Director of Gareth Morgan Investments The vexing issue facing many monetary authorities around the world over late 1990, has been whether to tighten monetary policy to counter the inflationary trends that are arising, most recently fuelled by oil, … Read More

Gareth Morgan, Director of Gareth Morgan Investments In NZ we dread a sustained oil price crisis because it will exacerbate an already weak economic performance, Australian financial markets are almost greeting that same news with delirium. Now it’s always been … Read More

Gareth Morgan, Director of Gareth Morgan Investments To the extent that the agreement between the government, the CTU, and the RBNZ delivers lower inflation, then NZ is closer to the day when the risk premium accorded our interest rates by … Read More

Gareth Morgan, Director of Gareth Morgan Investments As we get nearer the election National’s support of disinflation is melting, and with it the credibility of their promised growth goals. The claim that through the policy plans they have released, economic … Read More

Two weeks ago we considered the punts of four professional forecasting concerns- Infometrics, the Institute of Economic Research (NZIER), the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ), and Ben. In last Friday’s NBR, forecasts from a further five analysts were surveyed. … Read More

Over the last month the four major forecasting agencies have released their quarterly economic forecasts. The forecasts are split into two camps- one forecasting insignificant growth over the next 18 months and the other expecting growth of over 2% pa. … Read More

The drop in Producer Price Inflation to 0.8% (for outputs) in the March quarter adds to confusion as to where inflation is heading and the appropriate stance for monetary policy. The Reserve Bank had only days before lifted its inflation … Read More