Labour Misses The Point

Gareth MorganPolitics

Gareth Morgan, Director of Gareth Morgan Investments The shift at mill that Labour engineered last week really is the limit. The point they choose to miss is that the reason for the widespread political disaffection manifest in the undecided vote … Read More

Oh No, Why Can’t They Learn?

Gareth MorganPolitics

Gareth Morgan, Director of Gareth Morgan Investments The release of the National Party’s Industry Policy last week was like a return visit to the chamber of horrors, and in itself should leave no doubt in the financial market’s mind bow … Read More

Sleepwalking To Oblivion

Gareth MorganPolitics

Gareth Morgan, Director of Gareth Morgan Investments As soon as it was released, the budget was recognised by informed opinion as fiscal malfeasance. By condemning a future government to dipping further into debt markets, and/or raising taxes, Labour continued the … Read More

Caygill’s Muff

Gareth MorganPolitics

Gareth Morgan, Director of Gareth Morgan Investments The interest rate risk premium on New Zealand has continued its dramatic rise over the last week, signifying that the Budget was a turning point for financial markets. As a beacon of policy … Read More

Lest We Forget

Gareth MorganPolitics

Gareth Morgan, Director of Gareth Morgan Investments The Economic Strategy document accompanying last week’s Budget papers records The Treasury’s estimate of GDP growth for the 1989/90 year as +1%, and for this year Treasury has based its fiscal forecasts upon … Read More

Forecasts Apart, But Agreed On A Domestic Depression

Gareth MorganEconomics

Two weeks ago we considered the punts of four professional forecasting concerns- Infometrics, the Institute of Economic Research (NZIER), the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ), and Ben. In last Friday’s NBR, forecasts from a further five analysts were surveyed. … Read More

Economic Forecasts: Dissension of Some Dimension

Gareth MorganEconomics

Over the last month the four major forecasting agencies have released their quarterly economic forecasts. The forecasts are split into two camps- one forecasting insignificant growth over the next 18 months and the other expecting growth of over 2% pa. … Read More