Gareth Morgan | Page 73 | The Morgan Foundation

Caygill’s Muff

Gareth MorganAugust 6, 1990Politics

Gareth Morgan, Director of Gareth Morgan Investments The interest rate risk premium on New Zealand has continued its dramatic rise over the last week, signifying that the Budget was a turning point for financial markets. As a beacon of policy … Read More

Lest We Forget

Gareth MorganJuly 30, 1990Politics

Gareth Morgan, Director of Gareth Morgan Investments The Economic Strategy document accompanying last week’s Budget papers records The Treasury’s estimate of GDP growth for the 1989/90 year as +1%, and for this year Treasury has based its fiscal forecasts upon … Read More

Forecasts Apart, But Agreed On A Domestic Depression

Gareth MorganJuly 23, 1990Economics

Two weeks ago we considered the punts of four professional forecasting concerns- Infometrics, the Institute of Economic Research (NZIER), the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ), and Ben. In last Friday’s NBR, forecasts from a further five analysts were surveyed. … Read More

Economic Forecasts: Dissension of Some Dimension

Gareth MorganJuly 9, 1990Economics

Over the last month the four major forecasting agencies have released their quarterly economic forecasts. The forecasts are split into two camps- one forecasting insignificant growth over the next 18 months and the other expecting growth of over 2% pa. … Read More

Producer Price Inflation Confusion and monetary policy

Gareth MorganMay 18, 1990Economics

The drop in Producer Price Inflation to 0.8% (for outputs) in the March quarter adds to confusion as to where inflation is heading and the appropriate stance for monetary policy. The Reserve Bank had only days before lifted its inflation … Read More

Labour’s Economic Miracle: Vanishing Credibility

Gareth MorganMay 11, 1990Economics, Politics

Over the last year most economic forecasts of NZ have had to take on a more bearish tone, as the evidence for economic recovery has faltered. For those without a rationale for the more pessimistic outlook, references to a “lack … Read More