No Clemency

Gareth MorganProperty

Gareth Morgan, Director of Gareth Morgan Investments Robin Clements’ defence of his affordability index is inadequate. My dictionary describes affordability as “the position of being able to do something without adverse consequences”. On this measure of basic English comprehension the … Read More

The Budget: A Sobering Tone

Gareth MorganPolitics

Gareth Morgan, Director of Gareth Morgan Investments The 1992 Budget reveals a most sober official forecast of both the official accounts and the economy. The correct/unemployment rate being forecast over the next two years is over 13% and the budget … Read More

Any Work Mister?

Gareth MorganEconomics

Gareth Morgan, Director of Gareth Morgan Investments Last week’s news that the HLFS (Household Labour Force Survey) unemployment rate was 11.1% rather than nearer 12% which all the forecasters had predicted, looked good news. It confirmed a slowing trend in … Read More

The Political Juvenilia of Tariffs

Gareth MorganEconomics

Gareth Morgan, Director of Gareth Morgan Investments The decision by the Australian government to impose a $NZ 16,550 tariff on imported second hand cars is another bonanza for NZ and blow to Australian industrial competitiveness. So long as Australian politicians … Read More

Room To Boom

Gareth MorganEconomics

Gareth Morgan, Director of Gareth Morgan Investments The bond rate is currently a shade above 8%. The prospect is for inflation to be held below 2%, say averaging 1.5%. The real rate is then 6.5%, still substantially higher than in … Read More

Fiscal Policy: A Victim of Monetary Policy

Gareth MorganPolitics

Gareth Morgan, Director of Gareth Morgan Investments The government’s revised fiscal projections confirm a trend noted in our February forecast report and press release on that report made on March 24. To quote from that release, “National has failed to … Read More

Tax As A Social Policy Weapon

Gareth MorganTax and Welfare

Gareth Morgan, Director of Gareth Morgan Investments The idea that the tax system has somehow been reformed to a more neutral structure over recent years, is popular but misconstrued. NZ welfare benefits are equivalent to some of the largest negative … Read More

Negating Mega-Inefficiency

Gareth MorganInvesting

Gareth Morgan, Director of Gareth Morgan Investments Energy efficiency has been sidelined in the process of restructuring the electricity industry. It is a service industry, yet electricity is treated as though it is a satisficing good: the more you have, … Read More

Investment Beggars

Gareth MorganInvesting

Gareth Morgan, Director of Gareth Morgan Investments NZ requires an investment resurgence over the next year if it is to achieve significant economic growth. The chances of the household sector leading the recovery via a consumption splurge are not high, … Read More

Country Risk Premium

Gareth MorganPolitics

Gareth Morgan, Director of Gareth Morgan Investments One of the oft-heard points of dissatisfaction expressed by the Reserve Bank, is the persistance of high real interest rates in NZ, despite their obvious commitment to price stability. Despite this official frustration, … Read More